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Category Archives: Commodities
Could the US cut retail investors out of commodities?
How a Wall Street elite contrived to turn the physical commodities market into a casino, and trigger damaging “spikes” in everything from oil to foodstuffs was beautifully reported on by Matt Taibi of Rolling Stone Magazine in 2008. But the food riots last year may be spurring politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to take action. Retail investors, the "long only" bettors who have for years forced prices upward, are part of the problem. So the Democrats are proposing rule changes that would force small investors in the US to divest themselves of the $50 billion they have tied up in commodity derivatives - if Obama wins the election.
Lets hope grain prices are set to collapse, as US crop data suggests
Anyone who bought into the recent grain bubble and sent the price of corn soaring past its 2011 high - on the back of the worst drought in the US in more than 50 years - must be a little consternated. The US crop doesn’t look its going to collapse as was expected.
Also posted in Politics, Uncategorized Leave a comment
Brazil’s Consumer Boom is About to Blow Up in Investors’ Faces
Timing is everything when it comes to investing, which is why “playing the growth of the middle class consumer in Brazil” is likely to prove a major conceptual blunder by fund managers selling the idea of emerging market ‘decoupling’ to unsuspecting retail investors - even as the tide turns on the emerging markets growth story. No county has benefitted more from China’s economic growth, and unparalleled demand for resources than Brazil. But it is also because of its American-style consumer debt bubble that it is likely to prove one of the most leveraged bets on emerging market growth.
Also posted in Economy, Fund Management, Uncategorized Tagged Aberdeen Asset Management, Brazil, China, ETFs, Latin America, Vale 1 Comment
The Game is Up for the Commodity Super-Cycle as the Yo-Yo Years Begin
If a blizzard of awful Chinese economic data isn’t enough to convince you that China is heading into a deflationary slump and the commodity “super-cycle” is coming to an end, then the deepening crisis in the euro-zone should be. That’s because not only will a massive reduction in foreign lending by European banks hurt investment in emerging markets, but supplier economies will be hit disproportionately, as they were post-Lehman.
Also posted in Companies, Economy, Uncategorized Tagged Australia, Austria, BHP Billiton, Brazil, Canada, China, ECRI, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Taiwan, US, Yo-Yo Years 2 Comments
Solar Power Has Been Totally Eclipsed by Gas
Generous solar subsidies were never going to survive in an age of austerity and cheap natural gas. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Germany. Solar energy was supposed to herald a new age of clean energy, and provide thousands of green jobs, but not a single solar manufacturer is expected to survive there. With governments elsewhere, like Italy, also ending their tax payer funded bonanzas, the industry is facing total collapse, globally.
Also posted in Companies, Global Warming Scare, Uncategorized Tagged First Solar, Germany, Italy, solar energy, US 1 Comment
Bursting the Bubble of Chinese Competitiveness
What should alarm investors in Asia is the speed at which China is losing competitiveness. Inflation in China is probably more intractable than official headline statistics reveal, and because Chinese productivity is failing to keep pace with wage increases, while US productivity is far outstripping wage increases, the wage differential between the US and China is being compressed. So significant is the loss of Chinese competitiveness, that it’s argued that American manufacturing could experience a renaissance over the next five years.
Also posted in Companies, Economy, Uncategorized Tagged China, Goldman Sachs, manufacturing, offshoring, onshoring Comments closed
Fossil Fuels and Nuclear are the Only Ways to Satisfy Global Electricity Demand