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Category Archives: Fund Management
Could the US cut retail investors out of commodities?
How a Wall Street elite contrived to turn the physical commodities market into a casino, and trigger damaging “spikes” in everything from oil to foodstuffs was beautifully reported on by Matt Taibi of Rolling Stone Magazine in 2008. But the food riots last year may be spurring politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to take action. Retail investors, the "long only" bettors who have for years forced prices upward, are part of the problem. So the Democrats are proposing rule changes that would force small investors in the US to divest themselves of the $50 billion they have tied up in commodity derivatives - if Obama wins the election.
Brazil’s Consumer Boom is About to Blow Up in Investors’ Faces
Timing is everything when it comes to investing, which is why “playing the growth of the middle class consumer in Brazil” is likely to prove a major conceptual blunder by fund managers selling the idea of emerging market ‘decoupling’ to unsuspecting retail investors - even as the tide turns on the emerging markets growth story. No county has benefitted more from China’s economic growth, and unparalleled demand for resources than Brazil. But it is also because of its American-style consumer debt bubble that it is likely to prove one of the most leveraged bets on emerging market growth.
Also posted in Commodities, Economy, Uncategorized Tagged Aberdeen Asset Management, Brazil, China, ETFs, Latin America, Vale 1 Comment
To Win the Election, Obama and Romney Must Promise to Break Up the Big Banks
Campaigning for a break-up of the big banks has gone mainstream. If Obama is to win the election, he will have to stand up for the middle class, which is fed up with the unfairness of the present economic system. This means he will have to tackle the concentration of bank power that continues to threaten economic stability. For while the overarching purpose of the Dodd–Frank reforms was to end Too-Big-Too-Fail, it may actually be increasing banking industry concentration and preventing the economic recovery.
Also posted in Companies, Economy, Politics, Uncategorized Tagged Bank of America, Citigroup, Dodd-Frank, Federal Reserve, financial crisis, France, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Too-Big-Too-Fail, UK, US, Wells Fargo Comments closed
Commodities Gone Wild
Prices in commodity markets now seem divorced from the forces of supply and demand; set instead by extreme speculation and financing activities. As awareness of this market failure mounts, the whole sector is setting itself up for a massive fall. For once global regulators react - as they must do eventually – retail 'investors' who have helped to fund the over-investment though products like index trackers are going to discover just how risky being a speculator can be.
Also posted in Commodities, Currency Markets, Uncategorized Tagged aluminium, CFTC, coffee, commodities bubble, copper, oil Comments closed
Weirdness in Bond Markets
Increased demand for corporate bonds may paradoxically reflect falling risk appetite for bonds in general, Reuters reports today. Fund managers with mandates that mean they have to be invested in bonds, are looking to park the money in the least risky option. So they’re pulling money out of overbought government bonds and investing in high yield corporate bonds. This way, bond funds will lose relatively less money!
Also posted in Bond markets, Stockmarket Tagged bond market, corporate bonds, syndicated loans, Telecom Italia Leave a comment
Fund managers face exodus out of bonds
Let’s face it, it’s time to get real on bonds. Ultra loose monetary policy always risked creating new asset bubbles, and bonds seem to be in serious bubble territory, now that record flows into bond funds have pushed returns to such low levels that only serious deflation can possibly justify these investments.
Also posted in Bond markets, Economy Tagged bond market, bubble, corporate bonds, UK, US Leave a comment
EU To Follow US Lead on Commodity Speculation
More bad news for commodity ETFs. The E.U. could follow U.S plans to tame speculative activity, which has been blamed for record food and energy prices in 2008, if France’s call for common action to regulate volatile commodities markets are adopted
Also posted in Commodities Tagged CFTC, commodities, ETF, EU, France, oil, regulation Leave a comment
The Clear and Present Regulatory Danger Facing ETFs
We may not have long to wait for the collapse in the exchange-traded fund bubble. The ETF industry ran out of control long ago, but regulators can no longer ignore the retail money distorting market prices. Stuffed with exotic derivatives and super-concentrated bets on very risky markets, regulators are closing in. The steps they are taking will lead to a cascade of falling dominoes, as speculative ETFs are unwound.
Also posted in Commodities, Economy, Stockmarket Tagged Brazil, CFTC, commodities, ETF, Finra, flash crash, mutual funds, Obama, Petrobras, regulation, Vale do Rio Doce, Wall St Leave a comment
A Series of Unfortunate Events: Scenario planning in an uncertain world