How Long Before Eastern Europe Rebels Against EU Austerity?

It can only be a matter of time before Eastern European countries reject the EU’s austerity plans. By cutting their lending to central and eastern Europe, the western banks which dominate CEE banking are causing a full-blown credit crunch.

European banks have cut back on lending to emerging markets, according to BIS data. So far non-European global banks and bond
market investors have filled the gap, and there was no drop in overall trade finance in the fourth quarter of 2011 despite the diminishing foreign exposure of European banks. However, access to funding is likely to tighten across-the-board as the euro-zone crisis deepens, according to BoA Merrill Lynch.

Western European bank deleveraging poses an especially big threat to Eastern Europe, as I warned in The Game is UP for the Commodity Super-Cycle As the Yo-yo Years Begin. After all, this is a region still struggling to recover from the last credit recession, and facing further financial turmoil from the euro-zone crisis (see Central Europe’s Special Hell).

The most vulnerable countries, in their view, are the euro zone’s nearest neighbors: the Czech Republic (66% of exports shipped to the euro area), Poland (56%), and Hungary (55%). Not surprisingly, the GDP numbers in Eastern Europe were shockingly bad in the first quarter. The Czech economy shrank 1%, its third consecutive quarterly decline, and Hungary saw GDP decline by a full 1.3 %. However, the full effect of deleveraging won’t be felt into the middle of the year, warns Nomura.

The IMF and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development continue to present a united front on the need for austerity to tackle the debt crisis. But as Emerging Markets magazine reports, the battle over austerity and growth has moved east, as hostility to further cuts in spending and tax hikes spreads across large swathes of Europe.

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EPA Confirms Fracking Had No Bearing On Water Quality in ‘Gasland’ Town

Gasland, the Oscar-nominated anti-fracking documentary, which sensationally claimed that fracking has polluted water so badly in the small town of Dimock, Pennnsylvania that it has become flammable, had already been exposed as a pack of lies – much like Al Gore’s discredited propaganda movie An Incovenient Truth. Now, the Environemental Protection Agency has confirmed that the drinking water in Dimock is perfectly safe.

Water across the US has always had gas in it, and there have been reports of “flammable water” since at least 1936. Indeed, Gasland’s director, Josh Fox, admitted last year that he withheld evidence that showed gas can occur in water naturally and is not a result of fracking.

But the EPA went ahead and tested water at 61 homes in Dimock, Pennsylvania anyway. Residents had complained since 2009 of cloudy, foul-smelling water after Cabot Oil & Gas Corp drilled for gas nearby. But sampling did not show levels of contaminants that would give EPA reason to take further action.” Cabot spokesman George Stark said any contaminants found in the tests “are more likely indicative of naturally occurring background levels or other unrelated activities.”

This is good news for those who understand the global economic benefits of vast reserves of cheap energy.

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Damage to Business Forces British Columbia to Rethink Carbon Tax

Here is more evidence of the global retreat from climate change policies.  British Columbia, which enacted a bold set of climate change policies designed to dramatically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions five years ago, has now called for an extensive review, National Geographic reports.

The problem for BC is that no other provinces or US states have chosen to follow the same path, and the Western Climate Initiative – a regional cap-and-trade system, has been reduced to just California and four Canadian provinces, after six US states withdrew last November. Because its businesses are therefore competitively disadvantaged, the province is having to provide aid to them through tax breaks and credits. Funny that.

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Weakening Metals Prices Presage Weaker Stock Markets

With austerity in Europe and China’s property bubble deflating, it is not surprisingly that metals prices are weakening. But unless something drastically changes to push fundamental demand of metals higher, or the outlook for equities is not good, says Morgan Stanley.

Metal prices, which tend to be a good predictive indicator of global industrial production, have just gone materially negative for the first time since the financial crisis began, which means that global manufacturing data is likely to turn negative over the next few months.

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A New Wave of Chinese Accounting Scandals Puts Pressure on Regulators to Act

The Sino Forest scandal last year put the spotlight on dodgy Chinese accounting. Chinese companies listed in the West and, were likely to become uninvestable, the Angry Analyst argued. Such negative publicity was also likely to damage confidence in Hong Kong listed stocks. Since then, a wave of new frauds has hit Chinese companies in New York and Hong Kong, leading to growing pressure on Western regulators to take action. In the last week alone, Nasdaq halted trading in Tibet Pharmaceuticals and Global Sources, and a Chinese pork processing company Zhongpin became the focus of a US Securities and Exchange Commission investigation on insider trading. Another heavily promoted Chinese reverse merger stock, Deer Consumer, a small Chinese kitchen and home appliance producer, delayed its 2011 annual report in March.

More significant was the resignation of Ernst & Young as Sino-Forest’s auditor. Ernst & Young, which faces lawsuits over its work for Sino, says Sino still cannot resolve outstanding issues in relation to its 2011 annual financial statements. This followed Deloitte’s resignation as auditor of two Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies, in March: Boshiwa International, a maker of children’s wear, and Daqing Dairy Holdings, which produces milk formula.

Further auditor resignations are expected to follow, given the increasing damage to their reputations. A review of the big four firms – Deloitte & Touche, Ernst & Young, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers – by the Canadian Public Accountability Board, has found that roughly a quarter of audits fall below accepted auditing standards.

Of the 215 or so companies with operations in China that were listed in the US, 20 were delisted last year as a result of claims of fraud and insider trading, the FT reports. Another rash of fraudulent accounting will now finally force the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to inspect the works of Chinese accounting firms auditing US public companies. Bizarrely, the PCAOB, which was created in the wake of the Enron accounting scandal, is presently barred by Chinese securities regulators from doing so. Putting profit before oversight, may explain why the PCAOB has allowed these Chinese accounting firms to audit US public companies, the FT suggests.

Likewise, the Ontario Securities Commission’s review of Canadian stock listings, by companies with most of their operations in China and other emerging markets, has found weak links at every stage of the listing process, including the role played by auditors.

Not surprisingly, shares in the Bloomberg China Reverse Merger index, which tracks 82 small Chinese companies that joined US bourses in reverse mergers, has tumbled 67% since its peak at the start of 2010. The index is now trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.6, compared to a ratio of 14.4 for the S&P 500.

Related: Beware This Chinese Export [Barron's],

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Has Standard & Poor’s Got Its US Numbers Wrong?

Just the Facts: S&P’s $2 Trillion Mistake
John Bellows, Acting Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy

In a document provided to Treasury on Friday afternoon, Standard and Poor’s presented a judgment about the credit rating of the U.S. that was based on a $2 trillion mistake. After Treasury pointed out this error – a basic math error of significant consequence – S&P still chose to proceed with their flawed judgment by simply changing their principal rationale for their credit rating decision from an economic one to a political one.

S&P has said their decision to downgrade the U.S. was based in part on the fact that the Budget Control Act, which will reduce projected deficits by more than $2 trillion over the next 10 years, fell short of their $4 trillion expectation for deficit reduction. Clearly, in that context, S&P considers a $2 trillion change to projected deficits to be very significant. Yet, although S&P’s math error understated the deficit reduction in the Budget Control Act by $2 trillion, they found this same sum insignificant in this instance.

In fact, S&P’s $2 trillion mistake led to a very misleading picture of debt sustainability – the foundation for their initial judgment. This mistake undermined the economic justification for S&P’s credit rating decision. Yet after acknowledging their mistake, S&P simply removed a prominent discussion of the economic justification from their document.

In their initial, incorrect estimates, S&P projected that the debt as a share of GDP would rise rapidly through the middle of the decade, and they cited this as a primary reason for a downgrade.

In S&P’s corrected estimates – which lowered S&P’s projection of future deficits by $2 trillion over 10 years and lowered S&P’s estimate of debt as a share of GDP in 2021 by 8 percentage points – public debt is much more stable.

Note: Data are taken from the two separate versions of S&P estimates sent to Treasury on Friday.

The error came about because S&P took the amount of deficit reduction CBO calculated from the Budget Control Act and applied it to the wrong starting point, or “baseline.”

Specifically, CBO calculated that the Budget Control Act, including its discretionary caps, would save $2.1 trillion relative to a “baseline” in which current discretionary funding levels grow with inflation.

S&P incorrectly added that same $2.1 trillion in deficit reduction to an entirely different “baseline” where discretionary funding levels grow with nominal GDP over the next 10 years. Relative to this alternative “baseline,” the Budget Control Act will save more than $4 trillion over ten years – or over $2 trillion more than S&P calculated. (The baseline in which discretionary spending grows with nominal GDP is substantially higher because CBO assumes that nominal GDP grows by just under 5 percent a year on average, while inflation is around 2.5 percent a year on average.

The impact of this mistake was to dramatically overstate projected deficits—by $2 trillion over 10 years. As anybody who has followed the fiscal discussions knows, a change of this magnitude is very significant. Nonetheless, S&P did not believe a mistake of this magnitude was significant enough to warrant reconsidering their judgment, or even significant enough to warrant another day to carefully re-evaluate their analysis.

S&P acknowledged this error – in private conversations with Treasury on Friday afternoon and then publicly early Saturday morning. In the interim, they chose to issue a downgrade of the US credit rating.

Independent of this error, there is no justifiable rationale for downgrading the debt of the United States. There are millions of investors around the globe that trade Treasury securities. They assess our creditworthiness every minute of every day, and their collective judgment is that the U.S. has the means and political will to make good on its obligations. The magnitude of this mistake – and the haste with which S&P changed its principal rationale for action when presented with this error – raise fundamental questions about the credibility and integrity of S&P’s ratings action.


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News Corporation Could Face Forfeiture of Its Assets in the US

Because News Corporation has systematically been bribing police for information in the UK, the US Department of Justice has a slam dunk case to prosecute it under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the Guardian reported this morning. This could allow the Federal Government to impose massive financial penalties, or even liquidate News Corp.

The Department of Justice has ramped up its pursuit of companies and individuals under the act and has extracted big penalties. It’s now one of the highest law enforcement priorities in the US and nearly $2 billion was forfeited by US firms in 2009 and 2010.

Its recent probe of Avon cosmetics has demonstrated its reliance on companies to self examine and then volunteer the results. Companies have an incentive to settle, if they are not to lose everything. In 2010 the Department of Justice required one privately-held company that violated the FCPA, to end operations and be dissolved.

The prospect of News International’s acquisition of British Sky Broadcasting being approved has added several dollars to News Corp’s share price. Since the phone hacking scandal broke, its shares have only fallen back to $17, from $18. News Corp’s shareholders would be well advised to dump their stock next week, as there appears to be a lot more potential downside than investors realize. As Philip Stephens points out in the Financial Times, the British prime minister, David Cameron must now find a way to block Murdoch from securing full ownership of BSkyB. Otherwise, “the prime minister might just as well sign his own letter of resignation.”

However, the BSkyB deal might be the least of News Corporation’s worries. Renault‘s announcement that it is suspending advertising in all of News International’s newspapers, suggests that the damage to its brands extends much further than The News of the World.

Related: James Murdoch Could Face Criminal Charges on Both Sides of the Atlantic [The Guardian], James Murdoch Could Face Corporate Legal Charges [The Telegraph]

“News Corporation should be investigated by the US department of justice over allegations of bribery, illegal wiretapping, interference in a murder investigation, political blackmail, and rampant disregard for both the truth and basic decency”. Elliot Spitzer

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Global Temperatures Fall Way Below IPCC Projections

Global temperatures are far below levels that IPCC climate models predicted we’d have even if we “stabilised” CO2 emissions at levels for the year 2000 (orange curve), confirming how worthless climate models are

The actual temperatures (bright blue curve for HadCRUT) show temperatures falling back to 2000 level, while  the darker blue, green and red curves show how much temperatures should have risen, if climate models had any validity.

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The EU’s Carbon Tax on Airlines Won’t Fly

‘Saving the planet’ was always going to bring the EU into conflict with countries not foolish to cripple their industries with anti-carbon taxes. But the EU is now trying to impose its emissions trading scheme directly on non-EU airlines. So it’s not surprising that China has put a shot across the EU’s bows – in what could turn into the first carbon war – by blocking a $3.8 billion dollar order by Hong Kong Airlines for 10 Airbus superjumbo aircraft.

China had already announced its intention to deploy countermeasures against European aviation, if the EU goes ahead and makes all airlines flying into Europe pay to ‘pollute’ from Jan 2012. But only weeks after the head of Airbus and the International Air Transport Associate warned Brussels it faces a trade war with China and other powerful nations, China’s move shows that it really does mean business.

But it’s not only China that the EU is squaring up against, it is also the US. US airlines have mounted a legal challenge, which will be heard by the European Court of Justice on 5 July – though a judgment is not expected for some months. If they fail, the US is likely to mount retaliatory measures with European airlines and Airbus as targets.

Washington has warned the EU that it expects US airlines to be exempted from the EU’s emissions trading scheme. But it now fears that if the EU accepts that China’s announcement of an aviation emissions plan is an “equivalent measure” then US airlines could be penalized.

The EU’s climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard talks tough, and is warning that caving into the Chinese or the US would set a worrying precedent. However, with 4.5 million jobs at risk, the EU can’t afford a loose cannon like Hedegaard. The question, therefore, is whether French, British, and German governments will take action to reign her in – before rising aviation costs cause serious damage to the global economy.

Pleas by worried European airlines  - who are struggling with a wafer thin 0.7% profit margin – have so far fallen on deaf ears. But perhaps Europe will start listening when China blocks the other deals Airbus has made with Chinese carriers; or if retaliatory sanctions push an industry – whose net profits are already expected to nosedive to $4 billion from $18 billion in 2010 – over the edge.

With the Indian government and others declaring that the forced inclusion of global airlines in the EU’s scheme is illegal, it looks like it will never fly, unless Europe wants to see another industry take wing.

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Transparently Time to Sell Chinese B Shares.

The entire Chinese stock market is feeling the weight of fraud fears, as growing concerns about accounting irregularities in US-listed stocks tars every stock with the same brush.

The overall lack of transparency in Chinese companies and the Chinese economy is now a major liability. China is “the new dot-com” of the investment world, says Martin Wheatley, Hong Kong’s former securities regulator.

The sell-off has turned into a rout following a belated warning from the US Securities and Exchange Commission urging investors to review company filings for foreign companies that have listed in America through reverse mergers. Today, there are more than 500 such Chinese companies in the United States, collectively worth billions of dollars.

Institutional investors with reputations on the line simply cannot afford to stay in China stocks, hoping that they won’t become the victims of fraud. Even Sina.com, a Chinese internet stock which was supposed to be one of the most credible Chinese companies has been hit, as shareholders like Wells Fargo, UBS, T Row Price, and dozens of hedge funds review their stakes.

Understandably, questions are now being asked about the real level of bad and doubtful loans in Chinese banking, and the undisclosed ownership of some of China’s largest companies.

As China’s property bubble threatens to burst, economists like Nouriel Roubini are predicting that China will soon face a massive non-performing loan problem in the banking system and a massive amount of overcapacity that is going to lead to a hard landing. Guaging these risks is made all the harder when investors don’t know the actual pace of credit growth, because of the scale of off-balance sheet lending.

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