Tag Archives: Brazil

Brazil’s Consumer Boom is About to Blow Up in Investors’ Faces

Timing is everything when it comes to investing, which is why “playing the growth of the middle class consumer in Brazil” is likely to prove a major conceptual blunder by fund managers selling the idea of emerging market ‘decoupling’ to unsuspecting retail investors - even as the tide turns on the emerging markets growth story. No county has benefitted more from China’s economic growth, and unparalleled demand for resources than Brazil. But it is also because of its American-style consumer debt bubble that it is likely to prove one of the most leveraged bets on emerging market growth.
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The Game is Up for the Commodity Super-Cycle as the Yo-Yo Years Begin

If a blizzard of awful Chinese economic data isn’t enough to convince you that China is heading into a deflationary slump and the commodity “super-cycle” is coming to an end, then the deepening crisis in the euro-zone should be. That’s because not only will a massive reduction in foreign lending by European banks hurt investment in emerging markets, but supplier economies will be hit disproportionately, as they were post-Lehman.
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The Clear and Present Regulatory Danger Facing ETFs

We may not have long to wait for the collapse in the exchange-traded fund bubble. The ETF industry ran out of control long ago, but regulators can no longer ignore the retail money distorting market prices. Stuffed with exotic derivatives and super-concentrated bets on very risky markets, regulators are closing in. The steps they are taking will lead to a cascade of falling dominoes, as speculative ETFs are unwound.
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